Rising Sea Levels and Hurricanes


Global warming will be the major cause of increasing sea level and hurricanes frequency in the next decades. In order to predict the consequences of these extreme events in the next century and as well to analyse the anthropogenic variable in today's events, researchers are analysing the subject scenarios, if either today or in the future, as if occurring in 1900 under the climate conditions of the time. 

In such simulation, the SLR (sea level rise) including wetland loss is found to be the main cause of enhanced destruction from a hurricane, resulting in more intensified floods, surges, inland waves and possibly hydrodynamic loading on the levees which increase the vulnerability index of the area (Irish 2014).

When reading an article written by the Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology specifically directed at the policy makers, the implications predicted are in line with the previous study: "Local sea levels are highest during extreme events, which can lead to coastal flooding and erosion." These extreme sea level events mentioned here are indeed considered as "a combination of waves, tides and storm surges." 
In such a country as the UK, where the coasts make up the whole perimeter, coastal adaptation and mitigation policies must be of the essence, in order to create a more secure infrastructure along the beaches as well as protect sensitive buildings such as nuclear powers or in general energy productive industries which might lead to the most severe consequences, both environmentally and economically.

Hurricanes, as we've seen recently in Florida and the Philippines, are as well influenced greatly by climate change and in particularly by increase in SST. The increased temperature is directly proportional to the evaporation and condensation which create stronger rainfall and release in hear, thus consequently more robust winds. Scientists have high confidence as well that with global warming, the speed of winds will as well increase resulting in bigger impacts on communities and economies.

Looking forward, we must look deeply into the topic of future coastal floodings and hurricanes in terms of vulnerability and risks, considering SLR and SST as the key variables for accurately translating the predictive models of future extreme events.

Sources:

Irish, J. L., A. Sleath, M.A. Cialone, T.R. Knutson, and R.E. Jensen ‘Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900’, Climatic Change 122(4) 2014, pp.635–649.

Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology 'Rising sea levels', 555 2017, pp.1–5.

Ferreira, Celso & Irish, JL & Olivera, Francisco. (2012). Potential Effects of SLR and Land-Cover Changes on Hurricane Surge and Damage. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. 1. 1579. 

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/10/03/heres-what-we-know-about-how-climate-change-fuels-hurricanes

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