Sink or Swim: will Kiribati see the new century?


Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

With the current global sea level rise trend of 3,2 mm/year since 1993 as reported by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), Kiribati, along with many other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Seychelles, Maldives, Solomon Islands…, are not believed to survive the end of the century if necessary adaptation measures are not set into place. 


Climate change is by now a highly debated topics among policy makers and academics which future consequences are already looming on our daily life experiences. One of the main visible effects of its worsening is sea level rise as highlighted as well in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate published in 2019.

The most vulnerable regions as a result of such change are the so called Small Island Developing States located all around the world in the Caribbean, the Pacific, the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS). 

Kiribati, among all of them, consists of a collection of 32 coral atolls and one raised island in the Pacific Ocean. Being one of the most vulnerable and remote regions in the world, climate change has heavily impacted its climate by "increasing the seasonal temperatures thus also affecting the precipitations' patterns as well as damaging the crop production, fisheries, diseases outbreaks and freshwater supply for its people" as reported by the Australian Government in its 2015 report on 'Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program'.

The future of Kiribati is projected a difficult one: with a business as usual prediction following a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [RCP8.5], as described by the IPCC fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published in 2014 as a possible future emission scenario, the SIDS would expect to register a global warming to 3.8°C, an increase in days of warm spell from 30 to 350 on average and a rise to 10 days per year on average of heavy precipitation. Furthermore considering also the impacts on the ocean acidification, therefore on coral bleaching, storm damage and finally fishing pressure which are as well main concerns into the Adaptation Planning Program which the Australian Government drafted in collaboration with the Kiribati Meteorology Service.


However, Kiribati's president decided to take matter into his own hands and took a stand in fortifying his speech on climate justice with regard to the responsibilities for the dystopian future which his country is facing. “We’ve asked donors to help – the physical land is limited but we have a lot of sea area, we can reclaim those areas and raise them high,” said His Excellency Mr Taneti Maamau during his speech to world leaders at the High-Level plenary at COP27. “[Developed countries] should act, because time is short for us. Every day counts, a delay of a day means loss to us. It’s time for action, we demand action now.[…] I hope they listen now, because they have to honour their commitments and pledges. They need to open their ears more clearly, and their minds. The wealthy countries are after all responsible for what we are now facing.” Maamau continues in reference to the recently announced agreement at the COP27 on a 'Loss and Damage Fund' which should be instituted by the wealthier countries in order to support adaptation and mitigation policies for those developing communities which historically influenced the increase in greenhouse gas emissions to a minimum.


The president of Kiribati, a country of only around 121,000 people according to the World Bank, already took action against the threat of climate change protecting his people from the worst possible outcome: in 2014 Maamau bought a 5500 acres land in Fiji for the amount of 8.7ml dollar as a place for climate refugees. In February 2021 it was announced that China would have helped Kiribati to resume the farming in this region in order to support the food supply and malnutrition of the people or even possibly turning it into commercial agriculture as a source of income for the country. “China will not be involved in any activities, apart from providing technical advice during the development stages,”  Presidential aide Michael Foon told the Guardian, however if there is a the hidden agenda is still unclear and the fear of the West that China is trying to expand its military base towards the Pacific continues to persist.


Kiribati, as well as many other Small Developing Island States, is a clear example of regions where the impact of climate change results much more visibly than those other countries which actually contributed to its worsening to a far greater extent. The COP27 brings hope of climate justice for the most vulnerable communities, however how the plan will be enacted is still in doubt.

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