Simulating the Future with En-ROADS Climate Simulator

En-ROADS Climate Simulator

Is a climate simulator which allows to explore the impact of more than 30 policies which would have on the future climate based on the 1.5 degrees C global goal of global warming threshold from before industrial times.

En-ROADS is developed by Climate Interactive, the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, and Ventana Systems and should be seen as a tool for policy makers, media and the public to explore cross-sectional climate solutions.

Key findings:

Energy Supply (McKinsey & Company 2022):

  • Coal and Carbon remain the same considering the recent energy shock in the market
  • Oil is expected to decline rapidly beyond 2030
  • Bioenergy is projected to be x2-4 times higher in demand
  • Natural Gas is still strong in the energy mix being the lower carbon intensity fuel
  • With the increase in demand of electricity, nuclear energy is expected to play an important role in the energy supply

Innovation (IEA 2022):

  • Electricity consumption is projected to triple by 2050 boosted by the development of more electrified assets and with it its efficiency
  • Net zero carbon will be also a main policy focus in the next decades both by private and public sector

Growth:

  • Population is expected to grow by 2 billion more in the next 30 years (UNFPA)

Land and Industry:

  • Deforestation is expected to improve considering the recent pledges by world leaders on the end of deforestation by 2030 (Rannard 2021)


Key insights:

In terms of real life assumptions:

  • Recent events in the UA war boosted the demand for oil and coal, however at the same time a faster progress with efficiency and electrification.
  • The expectation by the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is that the 1% annual growth until 2030 expected in global energy demand will be almost entirely met by renewables.

In terms of predictions from the model:

  • Technological carbon removal has a 0.3 degrees C impact if medium growth is boosted which is much higher than for example other variables such as electrification of transport which if fully implemented would only have a 0.1 degrees impact
  • Based on current expectations which I was able to search online, the focus should be in order to close the gap 
    • on improving our energy supply by being totally independent from fossil fuels 
    • at the same time boosting the technological carbon removal which has the highest yield in impact


References:

Global Energy Perspective 2022, Executive Summary, April 2022, McKinsey & Company. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2022. Accessed on: 23 January 2023

World Energy Outlook 2022, Executive Summary, October 2022, IEA. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022. Accessed on: 23 January 2023

Nuclear Power and the Secure Energy Transition, Executive Summary, June 2022, IEA. Available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/world-energy-needs-and-nuclear-power.aspx. Accessed on: 23 January 2023

Population Data Portal, UNFPA, Available at: https://pdp.unfpa.org/apps/0aeda6af00dd4544ba50452da2dda474/explore. Accessed on: 23 January 2023

Georgina Rannard & Francesca Gillett, (2021), COP26: World leaders promise to end deforestation by 2030, BCC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59088498. Accessed on: 23 January 2023


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