The History of Climate Models

Climate models are composed by physical equations, which make the interactions of climate components explicit, and system feedback, which consists in those processes that can either amplify or reduce the effects of those climate forcings before computed (Stocker 2001).

The first mathematical equations ever formulated to clarify climate processes in terms of planetary energy budget and with the goal of proving the impact of CO2 on the latter were developed by Swede Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, who successfully created the first prediction of CO2 impact on the atmosphere (Anderson 2016).

Based on Arrhenius and other researchers' mathematical investigations, science was able to develop the first ever draft of an accurate climate model in 1967 at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in America by Manabe and Wetheral. Such model worked on a computer and included all the major components of the climate, the atmosphere, oceans and clouds, and the relationships between them (Manabe 1967). With such incorporation, we were able to predict for the first time the impact of climate change coming from the greenhouse gas emissions (Siegel 2017).

Climate models are in continuous evolution and development, where improvements are coded on a continuous cycle for years in order to come up with a higher and more complex resolution of the system (Carbon Brief 2018).

To the question whether climate models are overall accurate, the increasing improvements in computer power and refinements of model inputs contribute to an always more accurate climate modelling. However, the inexplicit processes represented via parameterization still create a level of uncertainty and bias on the final outcome (Kieran 2021). Another big source for uncertainty lays on the complexity of the carbon cycle, which still is not accurately represented in terms of predictions on carbon exchange between ocean and terrestrial biosphere and imbalances in concentration coming from fossil fuels and deforestation (Friedlingstein 2014).

Nonetheless, climate modelling is currently the most accurate and reliable methodology for predicting climate change based on the potential pathways which Earth is set to reach according to different emission scenarios. Therefore, it represents the best communication methodology to spread awareness to the general public that the moment to start taking action is now.


References:

National Centre for Atmospheric Science

Stocker, T. F., Clarke, G. K. C., Le Treut, H., Lindzen, R. S., Meleshko, V. P., Mugara, R. K., Palmer, T. N., Pierrehumbert, R. T., Sellers, P. J., Trenberth, K. E., & Holtslag, A. A., Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks, IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

Manabe and R. T. Wetheral, Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 24 (3), 1967

Anderson, T.R., E. Hawkins and P.D. Jones ’CO2, The greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and  Callendar to today’s Earth system models, Endeavour 40(3) 2016

Friedlingstein, P., M. Meinshausen, V.K. Arora, C.D. Jones, A. Anav, S.K. Liddicoat and R. Knutti Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections due to carbon cycle feedbacks, Journal of Climate 27(2) 2014

Ethan Siegel, The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly, Forbes, Published on: March 15 2017. Accessed on: January 2 2023

Kieran Mulvaney, How climate models got so accurate they earned a Nobel Prize, National Geographic, Published on: October 6 2021. Accessed on: January 2 2023

CarbonBrief, Q&A: How do climate models work?, 2018  


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