Different Analytical Approaches towards Low-Carbon Transitions

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are described by the UNFCCC as "to provide policy-relevant insights into global environmental change and sustainable development issues by providing a quantitative description of key processes in the human and earth systems and their interactions."

IAMs couple together energy system technologies along with socio-economic and climate science models in order to provide valuable predictions in terms of technological and economic feasibility to achieve for example the Paris Agreement goals (Hare 2018).

To this regard, they represent a valuable tool to be adopted in providing relevant data towards a low-carbon transition (Geels 2016). However, considering the requirement for IAMs of simplifications in mathematical representations as well as the rational choice econometric model assumptions, there is a need for integration with diverse approaches: the socio-technical transition theory, and practice-based action research (Geels 2016).

With such methodology we would be able to create a more plausible carbon roadmap representative of the different scales of governance and sectors which must be addressed.

The socio-technical transition theory complements IAMs in the sense that it contextualizes the non-linear interaction between innovations and actors in specific sectors and systems (Geels 2016).

The practice-based action research represents a more concrete and empirical approach towards understanding action-orientation to knowledge production relating to partnerships with local activists and researchers in grassroots innovations (Geels 2016).

Given the diversified natures of the three above-mentioned approaches as well as the mismatching ontological assumptions and philosophies of science, it will result challenging to integrate the three models into one holistic procedure (Geels 2016).

Nonetheless, all the three components become advantageous in order to address different governance dimensions as well as knowledge needs of policy makers when "bridged" together as a comprehensive tool (Geels 2016).

Therefore, the author suggests a complementary approach to the utilization of the three methodologies. 

On one side, they can be subdivided as "IAMs at the global scale, practice-based action research at the local scale, and the MLP and sector-specific models at the national sector scale" (Geels 2016).

On the other side, the three perspectives can support different academic and analytical needs: "[…] IAMs align with design and planning theories, […] socio-technical transitions theory aligns with theories of policy networks and advocacy coalitions, […] practice-based action research aligns well with theories of incrementalism and muddling through"(Geels 2016).

This kind of analytical approach to low-carbon transitions and related policy making would allow the governance to entertain both "goal-oriented directionality and emergent experimentation and learning": together, they "may underpin a multi-facetted transition approach in polycentric governance systems" (Geels 2016).


References:

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Models, UNFCCC. Available at: https://unfccc.int/topics/mitigation/workstreams/response-measures/modelling-tools-to-assess-the-impact-of-the-implementation-of-response-measures/integrated-assessment-models-iams-and-energy-environment-economy-e3-models

Bill Hare, Robert Brecha, Michiel Schaeffer (2018), Integrated Assessment Models: what are they and how do they arrive at their conclusions?, Climate Analytics: IAMs Briefing Oct2018

Geels, F.W., F. Berkhout and D.P. Van Vuuren, (2016), Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions, Nature climate change 6(6) 


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